Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wuthering Heights' debut week album sales be less than 75k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65630617f889039a74e5645a2304bfe6f34e0d5fc5b14b5719987740c1dee601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 54c | 841$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.14 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 46c | 617$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 15c | 533$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 15c | 467$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 13c | 393$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 54c | 240$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 11c | 228$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 67c | 214.18$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 46c | 183$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 46c | 172$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 12c | 141$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 15c | 136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 12c | 107.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 14c | 105.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 67.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed Yes | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wuthering Heights' debut week album sales be less than 75k?this page
- Will 'Wuthering Heights' debut week album sales be at least 200k?No won
- Will 'Wuthering Heights' debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.