Movies · resolved market
Will Erin Doherty win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1189ede414514511b396f81d8a10cc08334553e6d4109a481de8bbf06e5a11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 74c | 1,133$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.42 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 73c | 1,040$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 72c | 958$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.76 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 28c | 852$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.44 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 72c | 676$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 56c | 643.78$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.14 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 57c | 609.91$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.71 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 28c | 607.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.18 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 26c | 600$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 27c | 483$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 27c | 482$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 28c | 480$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 73c | 459$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 71c | 417.86$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed No | 28c | 415$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 59c | 384.58$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 26c | 342$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 336.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.69 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 28c | 331$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.32 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 56c | 330.84$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 73c | 316$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.68 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 27c | 316$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 72c | 308$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 26c | 306$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed Yes | 74c | 306$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 74c | 289$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 26c | 289$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 72c | 282$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 22c | 280$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 78c | 280$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 27c | 280$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 27c | 278$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 29c | 271.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 73c | 258$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 68c | 256$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 32c | 253$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked No | 27c | 234$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 28c | 219$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 72c | 219$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 14c | 208$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 28c | 196$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 6c | 195.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.88 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 26c | 191$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…680ebacked No | 22c | 157.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 72c | 133$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 75c | 128.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 72c | 74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 23c | 71.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…0275backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 22c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 75c | 49.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 43.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 61c | 35.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 54c | 25.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 80c | 16.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddec…4b75backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Erin Doherty win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Betty Gilpin win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Claire Danes win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Ellen Pompeo win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Kaitlyn Dever win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Meghann Fahy win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Michelle Williams win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes won
- Will Robin Wright win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Sarah Snook win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.