Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1551477601d7c939aeef20974de451df1c5d856c16d7a5df844c20f85347e48e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,591 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f5…9d27backed No | 0c | 20,380$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,527$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 80c | 2,688$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 72c | 1,054$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 23c | 982$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 77c | 977$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed No | 23c | 967$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed Yes | 77c | 962$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 20c | 912$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 20c | 909$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 20c | 867$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 77c | 841.72$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.41 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 28c | 541$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 28c | 513$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 382.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 375.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked No | 32c | 315.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 77c | 310$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…f7abbacked No | 13c | 302.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 68c | 253.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 20c | 180.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…6e90backed No | 18c | 173.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 142.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 30c | 97.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked No | 16c | 94.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked No | 22c | 89.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad1…fa43backed No | 25c | 58.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…165abacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…43ebbacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 69c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.