Movies · resolved market
Will Geeta Gandbhir - The Perfect Neighbor win Best Director of a Documentary Film at the 78th DGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19a2e89c9aae0f3b03c99a0757bfb8db410bc7f5a9e5b94a33520831b616cdac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 55c | 1,270$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 45c | 1,164$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 54c | 834$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.36 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 46c | 648$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 51c | 586$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed Yes | 51c | 566$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 51c | 565$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 52c | 529$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 49c | 510$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 49c | 454$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 45c | 441$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 55c | 441$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 49c | 413$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 54c | 409$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 46c | 409$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 48c | 393$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 55c | 365$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 53c | 310$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 47c | 310$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 45c | 209$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 45c | 156$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 49c | 153$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 48c | 136$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed No | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 50.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 52c | 24.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Geeta Gandbhir - The Perfect Neighbor win Best Director of a Documentary Film at the 78th DGA Awards?this page
- Will Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus - Cover-Up win Best Director of a Documentary Film at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
- Will Mstyslav Chernov - 2000 Meters to Andriivka win Best Director of a Documentary Film at the 78th DGA Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.