Music · resolved market
Will another country boycott Eurovision 2026 by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x433e5c81a8d5855960d9c16c1e1c6fae28bda3d469d89c60f79a645d15c321fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,259$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,189$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 64c | 934.77$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 13c | 715$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…e75abacked Yes | 2c | 660.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 645.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 55c | 605.76$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…89a3backed Yes | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 16c | 568$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 530.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 16c | 456$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 26c | 450$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 33c | 418.86$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 41c | 366.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 13c | 324$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 13c | 306$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked No | 69c | 270.02$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 40c | 263.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 4c | 230.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…7f39backed Yes | 9c | 223.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 60c | 219.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 13c | 206$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 195.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 9c | 186.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 70c | 179.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 174$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 60c | 155$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 152.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 33c | 152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 33c | 151.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 13c | 141$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…4a98backed Yes | 14c | 138.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…27d5backed Yes | 39c | 129.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…2a8dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…68b5backed Yes | 33c | 121.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…b213backed Yes | 17c | 111.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…b275backed Yes | 67c | 105.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…f79cbacked Yes | 10c | 103.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 60c | 101.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc8…484dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…0283backed Yes | 36c | 84.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9e…4bf4backed Yes | 33c | 75.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a2…5248backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 37c | 74.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…a433backed Yes | 39c | 72.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 77c | 71.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf41…bfd4backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…30c0backed Yes | 18c | 65.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed No | 39c | 64.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 35c | 60.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…2d87backed Yes | 36c | 56.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 62c | 53.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…33ffbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 47.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked Yes | 23c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…0fbbbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…2a9abacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b7…c3e3backed No | 60c | 22.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.