AI · resolved market
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c49ceb4fb071ba569a3ca7f3e1423e7089b780aa02171d5695ba5815916bb04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 3,048$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.8 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 37c | 947.24$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 612$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Yes | 18c | 442.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.43 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 14c | 283.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 259.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.62 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 77c | 237.38$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 18c | 210.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.14 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 182.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.11 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 17c | 141.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 139.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 11c | 137.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 19c | 128.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…5e0bbacked No | 79c | 126.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 78c | 119.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ff…0b32backed Yes | 19c | 103.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +418.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d55…d337backed Yes | 23c | 91.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4034…f52cbacked Yes | 23c | 88.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 79c | 87.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…ee77backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.0wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 82.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaa…8716backed No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 73.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…2a7cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…466dbacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 45.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 48c | 43.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…9240backed Yes | 31c | 32.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…c4d0backed No | 76c | 26.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 71c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…a2c6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed No | 73c | 17.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…1573backed No | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.