UFC · resolved market
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31fb6c38e312b0ed56db04f8d5eb1539061f88fc134bb370f2c5777c567d3c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 38c | 370.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 34c | 315.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 65c | 299.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 28c | 199.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes | 48c | 196.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 72c | 179.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 18c | 163.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed No | 55c | 149.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…abd2backed No | 64c | 149.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 28c | 129.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…404bbacked No | 78c | 126.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…8d72backed No | 69c | 122.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 112.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…64c1backed Yes | 45c | 103.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 75c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 72c | 98.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…61eabacked Yes | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 57c | 85.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 72.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…55cbbacked No | 70c | 69.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 55.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 69c | 54.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21de…217bbacked Yes | 37c | 50.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…05dcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…382bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 74c | 49.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 58c | 48.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 63c | 47.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked No | 61c | 45.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…6255backed No | 69c | 44.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 69c | 43.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…2b7fbacked No | 70c | 41.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…0643backed Yes | 46c | 40.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…c278backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca1…a5f0backed No | 74c | 39.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6887…408bbacked No | 72c | 37.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…aedcbacked No | 60c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 60c | 25.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 50c | 22.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…8253backed No | 79c | 22.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…4193backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…f2dfbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.