Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee1efbbe3ea818585558c8fc0451a4ccc910c6970dfc7767daaaa98416ec3967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 7c | 4,284$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +565%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 40c | 2,329$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 64c | 1,885$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 72c | 1,122$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.48 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 31c | 700$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 50c | 603.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…0787backed Yes | 67c | 599.97$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 33c | 595.15$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 428.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 399.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 53c | 386.26$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…ab91backed Yes | 63c | 316.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…02c2backed No | 5c | 269.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 45c | 252$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…fbdebacked Yes | 60c | 248.32$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…acc9backed No | 43c | 231.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 59c | 219.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…608bbacked Yes | 57c | 217$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 75c | 197$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 66c | 147.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked No | 33c | 118.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 90.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 76.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…6661backed No | 42c | 71.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 34c | 64.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…9ee4backed Yes | 59c | 64.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed No | 52c | 57.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…1c31backed Yes | 56c | 53.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…0c4dbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…3a5cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…cdf5backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…bfc0backed Yes | 57c | 38.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +222.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…e0e1backed Yes | 56c | 35.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70e1…a4dfbacked Yes | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e046backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 57c | 25.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…525fbacked Yes | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 66c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…fb8cbacked Yes | 60c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +107%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.