Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1dc62fef1fe6fdc72afdccd4cc71ed253f241fe918de4eec9e91e36264f0eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 15c | 2,139$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,808.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 14c | 2,041$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…31e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,842$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,396$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 18c | 1,211$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.46 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,185$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 22c | 873.91$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 13c | 577.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.18 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…72b6backed Yes | 18c | 544.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…b633backed Yes | 19c | 530.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1ecebacked Yes | 17c | 272.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +501.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3295backed Yes | 18c | 225.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +464.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 15c | 222.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 202$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.69 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…fb8cbacked Yes | 22c | 154.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +107%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 13c | 140.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 14c | 119.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 106.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 56c | 80.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…bfc0backed Yes | 15c | 64.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +222.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 5?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.