Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv by November 30, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8f4aefd2ee8568c15c35e00187214b66d8aea2542c6dc7d1b40c90c2544e9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 12,764$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…0a51backed No | 0c | 6,985$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 42c | 1,144$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…4df1backed No | 5c | 918.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 20c | 700$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 65c | 680.8$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.62 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…acc9backed No | 4c | 602.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 55c | 600$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…909ebacked No | 4c | 463.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 74c | 392$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…5880backed No | 5c | 359.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 42c | 277.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…9980backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9df…8517backed No | 56c | 195.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 7c | 163.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…fd43backed Yes | 56c | 89.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…5e38backed No | 61c | 82.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…436bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 57c | 35.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…9d20backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 76c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.