TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Jazz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Wizards, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,619,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,619,423 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,604 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Jazz60c152,837$91,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,702.3466248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Jazz60c100,000$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,00054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Wizards40c85,000$34,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,0001,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Jazz2c81,477$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.491,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards71c69,841$49,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,959.114,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Wizards38c62,073$23,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,485.0732653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Jazz0c60,261$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.265664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Jazz59c54,161$32,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,032.0120744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards41c47,215$19,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,936.331,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x893b…a860backed Jazz2c33,341$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jazz2c32,408$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.781,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Jazz13c32,323$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,181.9916346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Jazz0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Jazz1c27,159$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5513442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Wizards40c26,831$10,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,031.7341832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards40c26,759$10,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,078.384,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Wizards38c25,000$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,499.7732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Jazz59c24,481$14,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,443.7311955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards40c22,516$8,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,523.344,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Wizards37c21,992$8,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,854.9674748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Wizards41c20,530$8,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,202.3910930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Wizards46c19,611$9,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,580.872,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0287…8a29backed Jazz61c19,299$11,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,837.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Wizards38c15,836$6,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,818.2213842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Wizards40c14,487$5,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,692.224942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Jazz37c14,356$5,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,302.231,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz28c13,827$3,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,913.433,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Jazz2c13,332$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7123630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Wizards41c13,090$5,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,723.1724744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Jazz1c12,267$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6358740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Jazz62c12,110$7,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,508.038728.7%25 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wizards39c10,591$4,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,460.142,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Wizards39c10,256$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,256.4115850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4453…dd3bbacked Wizards74c9,547$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.854573.3%33 W · 12 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Jazz9c9,388$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.336023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Jazz29c9,246$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.842,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wizards40c9,049$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,429.12,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Jazz62c8,938$5,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,541.811543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wizards39c8,527$3,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.832,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Wizards41c8,500$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,01528649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Wizards37c7,980$2,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,027.428554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Jazz63c7,863$4,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,953.6316440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Wizards58c7,498$4,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,176.0923833.2%79 W · 159 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Wizards41c7,317$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,317.077459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Jazz4c7,248$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.831,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f5…c6a6backed Jazz1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8e…f961backed Jazz2c7,051$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.981747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Jazz59c7,000$4,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,13032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards53c6,846$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,229.613,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cf…55d3backed Jazz39c6,458$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards66c6,177$4,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.853,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Jazz4c6,114$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Jazz62c6,098$3,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,780.548447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2628…757bbacked Jazz3c6,067$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.873912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa330…bd47backed Wizards37c5,400$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jazz0c5,285$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.588820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Wizards51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4506147.5%29 W · 32 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Jazz62c4,990$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,09415952.8%84 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Jazz63c4,980$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,137.6822137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Jazz0c4,966$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.977211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d0…9911backed Jazz4c4,945$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3e…1e4abacked Jazz0c4,748$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Wizards51c4,322$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.3110743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Wizards71c4,320$3,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.310144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Jazz3c4,079$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13262546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Wizards39c3,957$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.425226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Wizards38c3,947$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.3720843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Jazz54c3,751$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.151,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wizards69c3,691$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.341,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Jazz60c3,475$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.2118648.9%91 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8443…5119backed Jazz51c3,358$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.544748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e8…7cbfbacked Jazz3c3,239$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.02137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick36cpaid-84.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Jazz63c3,200$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0164951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Wizards37c3,200$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0164551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Jazz63c3,200$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0165032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Jazz63c3,048$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9206352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Jazz61c3,039$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.5710254.9%56 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8873…eda6backed Jazz63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e6…7ce6backed Wizards37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8901855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfec6…f355backed Jazz63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.993847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Jazz62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.9820453.9%110 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Jazz3c2,949$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3417326.6%46 W · 127 L+0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Jazz1c2,833$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257623.7%18 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Wizards55c2,805$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.0527865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Jazz62c2,742$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70024151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Jazz57c2,594$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.6713154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa56a…3072backed Wizards57c2,509$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.3511555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Wizards40c2,472$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.2152460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed Jazz62c2,415$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5007864.1%50 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552b…9394backed Jazz63c2,400$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Wizards38c2,370$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.9143438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Jazz62c2,329$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.043,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa43a…1475backed Jazz2c2,310$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.521323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d22…1807backed Wizards36c2,212$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.99850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Jazz63c2,146$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.2448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Jazz62c2,116$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.9210448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Wizards38c2,105$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.2611235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Jazz63c2,095$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3202254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Jazz63c2,062$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.734851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Jazz60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.