NBA · resolved market
Spread: Jazz (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06aa0d81d7c87b7771b58718e74adb81a3df8eac927764494b5854535133a9ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Jazz, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $324,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,074 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Jazz | 50c | 297,313$147,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147,723.79 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards | 50c | 128,166$64,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,819.15 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards | 50c | 102,631$51,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,521.23 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Wizards | 51c | 69,828$35,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,492.76 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Jazz | 53c | 12,000$6,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,360 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Wizards | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Wizards | 50c | 2,570$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.87 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards | 51c | 2,030$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.88 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Jazz | 52c | 2,015$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.85 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Wizards | 50c | 1,628$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.21 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 50c | 1,050$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Jazz | 50c | 999.94$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Wizards | 51c | 695.22$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.66 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wizards | 50c | 605.01$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.51 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Jazz | 52c | 579.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 51c | 374$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Wizards | 50c | 309$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wizards | 50c | 223.92$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Jazz | 53c | 204.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…599bbacked Jazz | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Jazz | 53c | 185.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Jazz | 50c | 162.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Jazz | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Wizards | 53c | 119.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Jazz | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Jazz | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Jazz | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Jazz | 53c | 99.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Jazz | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Jazz | 53c | 94.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Wizards | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…5847backed Wizards | 51c | 69.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Wizards | 50c | 58.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Wizards | 47c | 57.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Wizards | 58c | 57.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…d0e7backed Jazz | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 50c | 52.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Jazz | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Wizards | 49c | 47.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Wizards | 53c | 43.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Wizards | 47c | 42.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Wizards | 51c | 41.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Jazz | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Wizards | 48c | 34.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d5…2bb6backed Jazz | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked Jazz | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Jazz | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…f47fbacked Wizards | 51c | 27.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8a76backed Jazz | 53c | 26.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Wizards | 52c | 25.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Wizards | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Wizards | 51c | 24.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 233 | 49.4%115 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…6437backed Wizards | 52c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Wizards | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Wizards | 50c | 22.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Wizards | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Jazz | 53c | 19.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jazz (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Wizards won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Cody Williams: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- John Konchar: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Jazz (-4.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Jazz (-5.5)Wizards won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Wizards vs. JazzWizards won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.