NBA · resolved market
John Konchar: Points O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4470c6cbf80126a01b56f2ab020072fac26a53f03da4377a94b6450a59fda4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 45c | 964$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.8 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 45c | 788$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.6 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 48c | 268$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 45c | 212$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Yes | 56c | 160.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 52c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 44c | 32.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- John Konchar: Points O/U 7.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Wizards won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Cody Williams: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Jazz (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Jazz (-4.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Jazz (-5.5)Wizards won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Wizards vs. JazzWizards won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.