NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac5a6773096ca7023c3bd851f689b2a699752d8cb43f509bcb452d9df00c2c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,402 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 1,166$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.69 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…faffbacked Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 425.62$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.78 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Under | 52c | 334.6$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.61 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Over | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5955backed Over | 50c | 82.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 49c | 80.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Over | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 49c | 55.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…8aa3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Wizards won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Cody Williams: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- John Konchar: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Jazz (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Jazz (-4.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Jazz (-5.5)Wizards won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Wizards vs. JazzWizards won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.