Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4411b8f2f8d3065cb87398f4df0e49bf504686a46090d43aef8bbf3087ad006e

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $374,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,575 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a35…7868backed Yes	0c	20,826$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.65	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f54…7f79backed Yes	0c	19,092$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34d7…c9e1backed Yes	0c	18,659$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.32	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a83…4908backed Yes	0c	18,038$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b17…6adbbacked Yes	0c	13,715$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaae7…730abacked Yes	0c	12,170$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.34	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	8,536$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.32	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	4,518$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.17	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,936$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.55	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,514$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	2,393$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.92	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,331$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.44	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,232$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,068$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	2c	2,050$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.24	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,004$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	1c	1,832$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,630$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,618$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	2c	1,465$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,406$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,288$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	1c	1,243$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes	1c	1,192$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	94	27.7%26 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	1c	1,171$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	1,032$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,010$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe2…727abacked Yes	2c	823.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	27cpaid	-70%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	3c	679.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes	3c	515.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0992…2a76backed Yes	3c	457.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event