Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83125581f825bbedeca66a92070a5deac26d987821111bf28ecdf6d7b69648c5

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $402,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $145,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,653 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	0%0 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda98…5119backed Yes	0c	9,996$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	8,856$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	8,178$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.97	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c52…7e35backed Yes	0c	6,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	5,532$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	5c	4,667$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.02	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,534$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.59	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,313$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	2c	3,300$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.4	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f9…fd9dbacked Yes	6c	2,952$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.73	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	3c	2,846$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.23	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	2c	2,779$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.53	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,654$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	4c	2,518$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.41	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	2,513$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.7	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,333$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.14	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	2,298$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.55	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,159$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.63	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	2,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2470…3e10backed Yes	3c	1,581$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	1,578$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2816…c473backed Yes	6c	1,540$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.99	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-87%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,500$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,359$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,333$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.17	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	1,249$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.21	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	1,200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.13	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…d43cbacked Yes	5c	1,136$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	1,037$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb82…7b94backed Yes	3c	1,017$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.73	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	7c	1,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.62	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.49	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	2c	999.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	3c	952.38$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	937.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	930.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	2c	923.42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes	4c	874.61$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.63	44	25%11 W · 33 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+63%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	853.08$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.87	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e7e…61c0backed Yes	2c	800.45$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	97	10.3%10 W · 87 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	666.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	647.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.62	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ada…e527backed Yes	5c	643.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2d…2c8cbacked Yes	3c	631.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	5c	592.9$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	566.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	5c	553.62$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b5…05a5backed Yes	3c	544.31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…238bbacked Yes	3c	537.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	6c	530.71$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	5c	515.68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.58	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	5c	507.13$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.28	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	499.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bed…c478backed Yes	7c	499.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	5c	492.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	5c	490.03$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c0…6761backed Yes	3c	468.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	8cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	4c	445.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.25	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	3c	443.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.03	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	414.62$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	397.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483a…45bcbacked Yes	3c	397.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	6c	395.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28db…1f83backed Yes	5c	388.76$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.93	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	6c	376.76$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	7c	350$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a5…08c9backed Yes	3c	346$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	337.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	5c	332.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Yes	3c	302.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	5c	290.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6e…154dbacked Yes	5c	256$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	8c	250.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77e9…1a46backed Yes	6c	242.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-37%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5720…515fbacked Yes	5c	240.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	41	22%9 W · 32 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ad…4753backed Yes	8c	240.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes	7c	220.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a5…dd19backed Yes	5c	215$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	10cpaid	+594.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa26…643ebacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	93	28%26 W · 67 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes	6c	165.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	160	13.8%22 W · 138 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event