Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7230eb97ca992372a4120c70f9d7c17832afe4140e2b68cfefc441ee42233b7a

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $208,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,428 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	0c	38,501$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	0c	31,492$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.49	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	17,755$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.06	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9645…e2d2backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	7,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	0c	5,719$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd832…19b7backed Yes	1c	5,532$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,457$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.83	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	3,583$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.88	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	3,500$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.25	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	1c	3,442$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,180$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.68	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	3c	2,398$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,900$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,691$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.53	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,686$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	3c	1,650$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.2	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce16…9aa2backed Yes	2c	1,616$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	6c	1,428$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.19	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	2c	1,365$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,250$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,226$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.39	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,220$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,046$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	1,020$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	908.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	2c	883.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	874.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	2c	862.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.42	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	3c	816.14$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	4c	787.83$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	3c	590.79$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	566.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	3c	451.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes	7c	226$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1443…e7bebacked Yes	5c	210.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event