Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb701c618c73b50285c9e04e0fc21d907f42ede62bc4c37ee36252ca3a6838f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $342,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a35…7868backed Yes | 0c | 13,687$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d7…c9e1backed Yes | 0c | 9,665$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…6adbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,994$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,931$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f54…7f79backed Yes | 0c | 8,186$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a83…4908backed Yes | 0c | 7,629$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 5,659$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,481$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae7…730abacked Yes | 0c | 4,271$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,709$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 3,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 2c | 3,411$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 3,095$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,834$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…6580backed Yes | 3c | 2,543$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 210 | 28.6%60 W · 150 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,027$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 328 | 1.2%4 W · 324 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 6.1%15 W · 231 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,998$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 2c | 1,830$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,820$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…26f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,570$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,525$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,466$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,421$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 105 | 12.4%13 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 1c | 1,226$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 4c | 1,150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 3c | 1,032$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,031$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 115 | 7.8%9 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,028$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…fa13backed Yes | 3c | 943.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked Yes | 2c | 731.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…fc4abacked Yes | 2c | 672.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 600.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 3c | 586.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 92 | 32.6%30 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…3694backed Yes | 2c | 583.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 2c | 553.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…570dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 475.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…7a85backed Yes | 4c | 417$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28db…1f83backed Yes | 6c | 407.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 5c | 370.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 8.8%11 W · 114 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 370.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…a422backed Yes | 4c | 357.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 168 | 14.9%25 W · 143 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ada…e527backed Yes | 3c | 335.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Yes | 4c | 323.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.