Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267907aba54d3ff1bbefbfeefa25e46c8381fab6dbb6e084ff578663aab66f89

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $288,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $73,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,380 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	8,846$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.98	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda98…5119backed Yes	0c	8,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	6,163$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.97	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	4c	5,769$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.11	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,790$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.37	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,300$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	3,000$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.42	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,986$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.39	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	2,591$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.53	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	2,284$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.17	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,105$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	1,900$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.51	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	3c	1,846$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.75	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	3c	1,797$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.97	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,766$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,630$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,522$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.06	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	1c	1,485$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	1,378$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.97	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,217$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	4c	1,174$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	1c	1,170$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	1,113$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	2c	963.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	1c	935.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.02	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	3c	915.89$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2d…2c8cbacked Yes	2c	749.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68b…fa13backed Yes	4c	650.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	4.5%2 W · 42 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ada…e527backed Yes	3c	638.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	4c	629.04$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.13	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	557.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	3c	553.62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	529.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb00…0b2ebacked Yes	4c	504.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c2…aadabacked Yes	3c	466$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	5c	450$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes	2c	425.52$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	94	27.7%26 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	5c	410.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39ff…29aabacked Yes	4c	408.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes	5c	390.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	378.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes	4c	351.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfe2…727abacked Yes	4c	339.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	27cpaid	-70%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28db…1f83backed Yes	6c	231.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event