NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b1af94c2be1bcaa6e421d393b75218b56f70b328ee95ee9e76e571c6a9dae6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,747 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 52c | 507.94$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.89 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 295$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 10c | 222.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…263bbacked Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…78aebacked Over | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 35.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d19…9c02backed Under | 53c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0c…282cbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Kings: O/U 226.5this page
- Danny Wolf: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nets vs. KingsKings won
- Nets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineNets won
- Nets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Nets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nets vs. Kings: O/U 215.5Over won
- Nets vs. Kings: O/U 216.5Over won
- Nets vs. Kings: O/U 218.5Over won
- Nets vs. Kings: O/U 219.5Over won
- Nets vs. Kings: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nets vs. Kings: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nique Clifford: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-4.5)Nets won
- Spread: Kings (-5.5)Nets won
- Spread: Kings (-6.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.