TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Nets, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,631,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,631,323 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nets32c156,556$50,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,054.3787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Nets32c134,516$43,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,04536549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Kings68c100,000$68,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,00011955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Nets25c100,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,999.974619.6%9 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Kings66c76,315$50,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,631.1820744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Kings65c50,006$32,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,646.0377348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Kings67c40,721$27,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,254.024,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Kings68c37,379$25,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,961.374148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings72c32,746$23,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,082.485,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04fe…3688backed Kings69c28,928$19,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,994.844100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Kings63c28,630$18,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,489.91,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings68c28,572$19,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,253.024,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings68c28,293$19,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,001.431,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed Kings60c27,841$16,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,196.594151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0528…424bbacked Kings68c24,690$16,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,947.76550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Nets33c23,943$7,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,901.2914450.7%73 W · 71 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nets28c22,264$6,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,156.231,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa115…6c5abacked Kings69c21,739$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,739.132250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d0…9391backed Kings67c21,719$14,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,082.527247.1%128 W · 144 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Kings67c21,240$14,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,924.392,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Nets36c18,646$6,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,728.092,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Kings75c18,432$13,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60848352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Nets30c17,393$5,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,206.621,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d1…553ebacked Nets33c17,300$5,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7093438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Kings67c17,300$11,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,710.468441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6658…8afdbacked Kings67c17,104$11,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,655.395856.9%33 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kings72c16,963$12,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,813.012,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings67c15,225$10,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,057.833,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…a339backed Kings68c14,899$10,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,767.612152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Nets14c14,658$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.367412.2%9 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Kings69c14,216$9,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,406.919330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Nets31c14,109$4,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,373.8772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Kings69c13,491$9,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.1513959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Nets33c13,208$4,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,358.66841.2%28 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets34c13,195$4,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,430.678,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…c5f8backed Nets34c13,000$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,419.992441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Nets38c12,500$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.9810158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Kings55c12,230$6,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,503.3242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Nets38c11,950$4,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,584.079629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kings70c11,351$7,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354.112,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Kings68c10,961$7,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,455.9510743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Nets33c10,455$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.5318343.7%80 W · 103 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Nets33c10,126$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,341.577142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8436…4c19backed Kings63c10,000$6,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,732.453366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+55.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1b6…c914backed Nets0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109220.7%19 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Nets39c10,000$3,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,873.895352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Nets30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9910641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Nets31c9,989$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.746144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Nets33c9,792$3,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,183.362347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nets26c9,407$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4321,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97fb…354fbacked Kings67c9,207$6,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Kings55c9,061$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.664845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Kings76c8,778$6,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.6528649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Kings55c8,519$4,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,833.5332846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Kings69c8,478$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,628.2622159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings69c8,326$5,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.044,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Nets1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nets37c7,566$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,767.95,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Nets33c7,220$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.4447043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7792…b63bbacked Nets32c7,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2404940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc3…91edbacked Kings65c7,000$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Kings68c6,999$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.654445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Kings69c6,954$4,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.829244.6%41 W · 51 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Nets33c6,695$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.558953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Nets32c6,689$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.2627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4453…dd3bbacked Kings76c6,565$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.744573.3%33 W · 12 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Nets34c6,500$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19061336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc6…1d96backed Nets34c6,500$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.871566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+73.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Nets3c6,061$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.323179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Nets32c6,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kings77c5,931$4,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.463,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nets20c5,775$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.783039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fc…7162backed Kings68c5,603$3,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.941586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+50.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings67c5,380$3,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nets35c5,067$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.3985344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nets36c4,970$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.6831345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Nets35c4,858$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6869547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed Kings67c4,673$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.29352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Nets34c4,498$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.3972241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Nets31c4,452$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.011,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe262…ac17backed Kings68c4,447$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.061338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Kings68c4,403$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.089952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Kings73c4,325$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.118155.6%45 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Kings75c4,300$3,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0756451.6%33 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Kings67c4,220$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.671547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Kings68c4,122$2,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.12138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nets33c4,098$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.331,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Nets33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Nets32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kings72c3,990$2,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.982,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Nets35c3,987$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.527735%97 W · 180 L-30.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Nets1c3,968$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.228820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Kings67c3,854$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.0414061.4%86 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kings68c3,849$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.8172450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kings68c3,761$2,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.342,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Nets28c3,688$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.1689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Nets24c3,457$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84030845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f17…80fdbacked Kings66c3,351$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+68.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Nets27c3,158$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+137%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Nets32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1438143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.