NBA · resolved market
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ab06f0ccfcee17ed15142660f2de987a9d652e770359eca7a022092c9c9f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc743…66c0backed Yes | 13c | 6,684$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 9c | 3,012$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.06 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 14c | 2,640$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.68 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…2317backed Yes | 12c | 2,124$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…d6e3backed Yes | 10c | 2,111$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…4073backed Yes | 7c | 2,109$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…6299backed Yes | 10c | 2,024$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…3e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,016$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…00e2backed Yes | 11c | 1,791$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd877…c974backed Yes | 14c | 1,446$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 10c | 1,208$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…b244backed Yes | 14c | 1,050$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 8c | 1,025$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…9990backed Yes | 12c | 958.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 869.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 16c | 628.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…b678backed Yes | 15c | 520$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…40c4backed Yes | 14c | 481.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…1a03backed Yes | 12c | 434.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb374…02bcbacked Yes | 14c | 433.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 10c | 393.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 8c | 356$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb380…921ebacked Yes | 9c | 321.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…6206backed Yes | 15c | 292$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…223abacked Yes | 8c | 281.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 280$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Yes | 15c | 278.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 9c | 276.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…0fc0backed Yes | 19c | 263.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 8c | 210.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x119b…8161backed Yes | 16c | 180.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…0a4bbacked Yes | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…fc45backed Yes | 11c | 170.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 9c | 168.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 8c | 167.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…ff6abacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db9…fe75backed Yes | 13c | 151.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 135.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 12c | 126.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…b746backed Yes | 20c | 125.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe972…f8cfbacked Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…afe2backed Yes | 12c | 119.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…0d3ebacked Yes | 14c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…697bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadc…4003backed Yes | 29c | 96.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 95.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 83.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5e…71a5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…f35dbacked Yes | 27c | 58.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Yes | 20c | 50.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 71.7%66 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?this page
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?Yes won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.