NBA · resolved market
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95efe656d9ac85dd4e3e98f0c6d23eaef153a90da2e7f6c20cfcc555bebbce9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 19c | 5,769$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.29 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Yes | 19c | 4,737$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.25 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Yes | 19c | 4,420$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.54 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 3,375$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.57 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 2,790$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.34 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 1,405$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.04 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 79c | 1,232$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.71 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 20c | 1,125$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,097$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 815.61$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 621 | 44%273 W · 348 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…1a03backed Yes | 23c | 439.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 423.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…19fcbacked Yes | 27c | 409.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…4073backed Yes | 15c | 373.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 21c | 368$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5a…e709backed Yes | 15c | 351.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 17c | 347.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 326$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…59dcbacked Yes | 21c | 322.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 18c | 299.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…afe2backed No | 79c | 295.94$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…223abacked Yes | 16c | 280.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 14c | 273.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f3…af78backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 216.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 200.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…7d93backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…3595backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…4e8ebacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 16c | 198.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 196.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a7…ab94backed Yes | 24c | 195.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 16c | 193.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 191.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb374…02bcbacked Yes | 21c | 188.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 19c | 160.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 156.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes | 23c | 137.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +82%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 132.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…572cbacked Yes | 23c | 121.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb380…921ebacked Yes | 25c | 110.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…1694backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…10c0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…70b7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…e0edbacked Yes | 17c | 91.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…c97dbacked Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…e656backed Yes | 26c | 75.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdc…d261backed Yes | 29c | 68.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 18c | 58.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 58.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 74c | 58.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…80ecbacked No | 80c | 55.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…f35dbacked Yes | 30c | 53.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed No | 77c | 52.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…066ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…b35fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 42.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…8b39backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 80c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 78c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?this page
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?Yes won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.