NBA · resolved market
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7731ffe19a33509081865a3bc4824969f1369ebe11ce0e279e6d6209bc473eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x143a…b14dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…26fdbacked Yes | 11c | 5,028$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.1 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcafc…09ffbacked Yes | 17c | 3,375$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 11c | 2,571$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.47 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,821$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 1,485$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…22d2backed Yes | 7c | 1,388$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 994.21$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2268…439dbacked Yes | 41c | 854.77$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 724.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed Yes | 14c | 694.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 14c | 603.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 621 | 44%273 W · 348 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…4e8ebacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 473.97$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.94 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes | 15c | 458.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…43eebacked Yes | 25c | 411.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 378.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 351.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 301$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e29…55afbacked Yes | 15c | 287.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…ed7fbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…223abacked Yes | 7c | 281.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 6c | 264.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 7c | 229.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 182.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…693cbacked Yes | 22c | 171.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…70b7backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…a755backed Yes | 10c | 157.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…59dcbacked Yes | 28c | 156.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 15c | 152.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 152$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 151.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 149.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 144.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 137$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 78c | 130.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…92c1backed Yes | 23c | 110.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…202abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…5f47backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…4069backed Yes | 14c | 96.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…e0edbacked No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…d70fbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 79c | 86.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…cf30backed Yes | 36c | 82.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…8e02backed Yes | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…6db1backed Yes | 22c | 69.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 66.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed No | 77c | 65.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 60.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…8c51backed Yes | 36c | 55.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +462.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 39.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…8b39backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 24.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 77c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?this page
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?Yes won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?No won
- Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.