TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Nuggets, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$589,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $589,802 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Mavericks53c313,836$165,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147,900.4320545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Mavericks54c92,570$49,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,582.243148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Nuggets46c57,159$26,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,293.3144352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nuggets47c54,737$25,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,8251,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Nuggets47c51,218$23,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,902.6611543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Mavericks51c49,776$25,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,390.2360351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Nuggets47c48,644$22,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,862.681,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets47c29,129$13,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,641.831,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Nuggets47c23,285$10,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,9448748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Nuggets49c20,411$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Nuggets49c20,408$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Nuggets47c19,532$9,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,179.924744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Nuggets47c16,138$7,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,584.8631643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets47c14,017$6,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,542.444,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets51c12,000$6,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1201,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf303…5847backed Nuggets47c11,999$5,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6753237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Nuggets47c9,894$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,650.432150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Nuggets47c9,681$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,55041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Nuggets49c9,251$4,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,532.777240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets47c7,880$3,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,719.333,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Nuggets47c7,872$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets44c7,596$3,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Nuggets47c7,198$3,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,383.0625049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks53c7,157$3,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,363.94,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Mavericks55c7,058$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,176.188756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Nuggets48c6,150$2,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9521,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Nuggets46c6,006$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.4317850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8204,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Nuggets46c5,738$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.2666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Nuggets46c4,978$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,289.712945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks52c4,963$2,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.134,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Nuggets47c4,357$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.7270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Nuggets46c3,991$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.6687750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Mavericks54c3,627$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.191,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Nuggets47c3,161$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49014251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Mavericks54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Nuggets47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1755446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Mavericks53c2,451$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.9627455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Nuggets47c2,296$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07913138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nuggets45c2,276$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.232,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Nuggets48c2,270$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.595147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Mavericks52c2,076$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.451,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nuggets48c2,059$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.511,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets46c1,958$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.682,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Nuggets47c1,939$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.6824151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Mavericks56c1,766$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.52,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets47c1,498$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.182,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd5…9801backed Nuggets47c1,491$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005034%17 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Nuggets48c1,108$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.6944551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Mavericks56c1,063$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.3120963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d63…0b78backed Mavericks53c989.28$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.9613253.8%71 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks61c982.22$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.952,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Mavericks50c920.26$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.1318651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Mavericks49c800$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40867252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Nuggets47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Mavericks52c574.6$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1420838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Nuggets47c561.61$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.961,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Mavericks58c531.88$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.711,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Nuggets48c522.66$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9856447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Mavericks52c488.16$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3230453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Nuggets48c456.54$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21942352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nuggets24c418.95$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Nuggets48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20032450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Nuggets48c404.27$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0551647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets46c380$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.86,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d8…c0f2backed Mavericks53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.367346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Nuggets54c371.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025753.7%138 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Mavericks53c361.09$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7157650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets47c345.08$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.253,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Mavericks53c323.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.626756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Nuggets47c314.87$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9466046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Nuggets45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13559144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ddb…513dbacked Mavericks55c289.09$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.095846.6%27 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Nuggets47c281.35$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1350948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets41c278.24$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.011,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Mavericks73c263.97$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4976054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Mavericks57c263.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2728554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd179…361ebacked Nuggets38c263.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Mavericks52c255.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8877549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Mavericks53c226.24$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2548751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Mavericks53c220.12$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4689853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Nuggets47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.461957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked Nuggets47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Nuggets47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Nuggets48c211.4$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.232744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Nuggets48c208.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9925049.6%124 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets50c201.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.83,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nuggets47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9417148%82 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Nuggets50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009255.4%51 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Nuggets46c199.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9968645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc793…f66fbacked Mavericks56c185$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.911050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4008…2942backed Mavericks53c180.91$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4118254.4%99 W · 83 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Mavericks51c176$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2412645.2%57 W · 69 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8585…eef1backed Nuggets43c168.88$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.42433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Mavericks53c162.89$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.931354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Nuggets41c161.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.221,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets46c151.95$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.92,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Nuggets36c146.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9387744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.