TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,112 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c25,000$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e54…92e0backed Under50c5,772$2,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9829748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Under50c4,320$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c3,907$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.531,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over52c3,864$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.6412341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6748…5e15backed Over49c3,058$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Under52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9912251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa129…e4adbacked Over49c2,964$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over53c2,587$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.818,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c2,570$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.34,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8aa…fa54backed Under51c2,511$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7029…4331backed Over50c2,107$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.572454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e19…d0f1backed Over49c2,048$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Over50c1,986$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.86654.5%36 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4c2…3d92backed Under51c1,953$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Over66c1,667$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.676764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under50c1,606$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8031,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86cb…fe38backed Under51c1,509$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc902…90b7backed Over49c1,490$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x583b…9e14backed Under51c1,454$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c1,425$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.435,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Under50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013857.2%79 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60019958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over49c1,171$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.9720838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under45c1,143$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.762,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c90…4e8abacked Under51c1,140$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…be9cbacked Over49c1,121$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over51c1,078$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.4321247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1293…b7febacked Under51c1,063$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b40…f6ebbacked Under51c1,052$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under42c1,050$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.342,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9953951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c929.59$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.482,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under51c924.62$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.554,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Over50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf303…5847backed Under50c880$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4403237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over58c655.17$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.1746258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Over51c642$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.5811543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Over52c640.38$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.3826745.3%121 W · 146 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c605.86$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.874,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under50c604$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Under43c599.98$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9949938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over55c552.82$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.552,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over49c529.38$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.142153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c527.08$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.43,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Under49c506.35$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.116851.5%35 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Under51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25532450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Under50c496$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24832151.7%166 W · 155 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Under52c477.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25013935.3%49 W · 90 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under48c475.16$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.713,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c411.97$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.032,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over49c408$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0852240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Over51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1969346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Over48c362.01$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.2420352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under45c344.92$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.891,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over51c335.45$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3789048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c317.01$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.374,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14419435.1%68 W · 126 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under50c289.17$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.581,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57f…4d74backed Over49c285.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.712871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.9wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4747…2987backed Under37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under50c265.08$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7156447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over52c251.94$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9418850.5%95 W · 93 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Under49c245.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1616242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under27c221.58$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58c…8b7fbacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f79…f7f7backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009442.6%40 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x743a…ddcdbacked Under49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10478648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e39…dfd9backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002425%6 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9825846.9%121 W · 137 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed Over51c196.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9313345.9%61 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb03c…b352backed Under51c196.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005341.5%22 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under51c189.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8441449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Under48c184.96$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7827241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Under55c182.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031151.1%159 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under49c180.8$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5955347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over60c162.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.881,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over51c157.57$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2167248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Over49c151.92$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2917643.2%76 W · 100 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c150.79$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.765,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under49c147.31$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1860945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under50c146.15$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0821843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Over52c146$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6130840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over50c146$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Under50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7066046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under47c133.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.271,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Under51c121.14$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.665349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed Over54c118.3$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.697448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Over49c117.65$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6077549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1629…8510backed Under51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010249%50 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under49c112$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8856843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.