NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc586d5d96b90b7cd77bab2c0d34cfa630c21e2acc21715241035ab2485e0b5d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 8,309$4,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,071.4 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…1845backed Over | 51c | 3,561$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…9fbfbacked Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,673$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 1,437$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.03 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 51c | 1,336$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.64 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed Over | 51c | 837.25$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.25 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…c071backed Over | 53c | 665.45$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 486$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.56 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 42c | 469.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…ef8dbacked Over | 51c | 432.92$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.13 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 54c | 354.78$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 331.73$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 54c | 312.26$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 244$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 47c | 218.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 218.15$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 197.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Over | 64c | 188.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 43c | 156.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 145.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…f3babacked Over | 55c | 115.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 47c | 109.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…7e77backed Over | 67c | 104.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 45c | 104.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f79…f7f7backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…b53abacked Over | 66c | 90.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Over | 69c | 84.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 46c | 81.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 51c | 81.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 32c | 81.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 80.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 41c | 70.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 46c | 69.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 30c | 64.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 48c | 62.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 53c | 58.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 53c | 57.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 57.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…3970backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 64c | 46.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…65e7backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 38.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…6ef3backed Over | 64c | 31.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 30.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 46c | 29.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 46c | 28.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed Over | 51c | 26.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Under | 49c | 25.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 48c | 23.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 193 | 57.5%111 W · 82 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 59c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 18.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…6437backed Over | 55c | 18.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over | 56c | 18.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 126.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.