TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Nuggets, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,032 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks53c10,066$5,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,731.51,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Nuggets47c9,785$4,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.0224744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets51c7,983$4,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071.331,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Mavericks53c5,003$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.4315349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a7a…c0abbacked Mavericks49c2,377$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.492445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks50c2,239$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9647…4d48backed Mavericks53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.791450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets45c1,470$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.164,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets44c1,455$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.678,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Mavericks54c1,370$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.793447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks53c1,343$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.184,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets46c1,015$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.233,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3761,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Nuggets47c757.15$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.8622945.9%105 W · 124 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Mavericks49c590.59$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.171,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Nuggets47c564$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.086946.4%32 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks60c501.89$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.92,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Mavericks60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20010252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Nuggets41c468.86$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4920838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Nuggets46c370.43$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.82,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Mavericks55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6414152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks52c330$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.622,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Mavericks51c316.39$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3924849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets40c284.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.381,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87fa…12d0backed Nuggets47c212.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015357.5%88 W · 65 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Nuggets47c211.23$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2841449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Mavericks55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8236450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nuggets45c180.76$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.221,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Nuggets35c145.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.221,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Nuggets49c137.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.441,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Nuggets47c137.63$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7144551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Nuggets51c137$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8777549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Nuggets47c136.81$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.342744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Nuggets46c134.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.421,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdade…8e37backed Mavericks54c124.19$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.135939%23 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Nuggets38c120.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.121,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked Nuggets47c120.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.553729.7%11 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Nuggets47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029848%143 W · 155 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Nuggets47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Nuggets47c102.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9650948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Mavericks51c102.03$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5042153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Mavericks54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4625559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Mavericks50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5038740.3%156 W · 231 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5955backed Mavericks52c88.63$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1d…7ff3backed Nuggets47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010753.3%57 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a90…700bbacked Nuggets47c85.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Mavericks54c84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8880440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nuggets47c75.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2757250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Mavericks54c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8633030.9%102 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nuggets45c68.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.991,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x6c59…ad51backed Mavericks52c66.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.911668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nuggets41c65.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.722,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Nuggets48c62.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Nuggets48c57.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.526450%132 W · 132 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…0b9cbacked Mavericks54c55.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0611447.4%54 W · 60 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x810d…6080backed Nuggets47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Mavericks57c52.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.851946.8%243 W · 276 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7f…bb30backed Nuggets45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54637%17 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Nuggets43c49.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1656447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Nuggets46c45.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.133225%8 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Mavericks56c44.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9617758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Nuggets47c42.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9639943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Mavericks54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.445544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nuggets46c39.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.055,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc045…4494backed Nuggets47c39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…a06dbacked Mavericks54c38.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.894856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x483b…027ebacked Nuggets47c34.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.232540%10 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Mavericks54c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7240440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Mavericks53c33.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.791,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks57c32.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.053,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f4…e04fbacked Nuggets43c32.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7990%0 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Mavericks58c31.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0362546.9%293 W · 332 L+1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f23…6d15backed Mavericks58c30.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.063050%15 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Nuggets50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538048.7%185 W · 195 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Nuggets42c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.625138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e57…ddc3backed Nuggets47c29.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa18f…c57abacked Mavericks51c29.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.417856.4%44 W · 34 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc816…7a20backed Mavericks53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.39552.6%50 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa991…f266backed Mavericks55c27.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.038950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf624…eae2backed Mavericks56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.792133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8dd1…da99backed Nuggets49c26.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.815549.1%27 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a05…7757backed Nuggets46c24.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.981030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6c…acd8backed Nuggets46c22.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb7…d873backed Mavericks54c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6612245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Mavericks54c20.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4819357.5%111 W · 82 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Mavericks51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.895548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Nuggets50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd0…f7abbacked Mavericks54c18.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.