NBA · resolved market
Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3620de768df9c125c0bcd8be32ee132416eed4e24c61d7e4671ac39e0450a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,612 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes | 35c | 890.78$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 64c | 748.71$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.28 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 75c | 471.93$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc48a…bfc6backed Yes | 24c | 168.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed No | 69c | 165.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 77c | 165.06$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 23c | 162.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 192 | 45.3%87 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa979…abc6backed Yes | 28c | 144.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf5…40f5backed Yes | 24c | 112.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…5f1fbacked Yes | 30c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ef…77e7backed Yes | 23c | 88.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 32c | 71.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a6…0effbacked Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 40c | 60.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 65c | 42.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…f3b8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked No | 75c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed No | 78c | 18.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 77c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 16.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 126.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.