NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf793a557fdae58ff441caf14ef95d640a21dd81795520819eea22b477db70319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Nuggets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,252 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Nuggets | 55c | 4,028$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,215.17 | 147 | 66%97 W · 50 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 52c | 2,541$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Mavericks | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Mavericks | 50c | 997.8$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.9 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Nuggets | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 552.65$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Nuggets | 52c | 543$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.36 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Mavericks | 46c | 402.69$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.88 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…f851backed Nuggets | 51c | 330.76$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78c0…71abbacked Mavericks | 48c | 322.25$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Nuggets | 49c | 309.38$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…7ee5backed Mavericks | 51c | 297.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Nuggets | 46c | 295.31$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…ae0ebacked Nuggets | 49c | 176.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Nuggets | 43c | 143.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mavericks | 46c | 117.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Mavericks | 54c | 111.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nuggets | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Mavericks | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Mavericks | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Mavericks | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 387 | 40.3%156 W · 231 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Nuggets | 41c | 98.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…a173backed Mavericks | 59c | 85.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Mavericks | 51c | 81.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Mavericks | 55c | 72.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Mavericks | 48c | 66.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Mavericks | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Mavericks | 56c | 61.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Mavericks | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 200 | 49%98 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Nuggets | 51c | 55.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets | 43c | 53.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Nuggets | 48c | 51.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Nuggets | 51c | 46.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Mavericks | 53c | 40.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 40.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Mavericks | 54c | 37.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Mavericks | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Nuggets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Mavericks | 56c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Mavericks vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 126.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 244.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Nuggets: O/U 245.5Over won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.