Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a49a43fc016f8b247b7dfd0d2aa07ed18664e3f7f8c217845eade8849f6e18b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $437,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $150,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,908 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	17,495$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	0c	15,678$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.36	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	11,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	1c	9,495$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.92	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	8,465$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.45	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	7,035$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	2c	7,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.61	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	4,765$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,750$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	4,502$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.14	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,049$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.52	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	1c	3,381$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,265$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,141$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,658$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.82	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	2c	2,518$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	2,500$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,458$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61bc…7cbfbacked Yes	1c	2,448$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,411$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.47	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,339$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.16	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	3c	2,288$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	2,286$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.58	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed Yes	1c	2,142$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	1c	2,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,058$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	2c	2,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	2,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.7	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	5c	1,648$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	1,620$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.97	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	1,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,102$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	1,002$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.17	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…3b1ebacked Yes	8c	999.98$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	5c	930.02$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	2c	900$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	5c	850$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	8c	849.98$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	2c	835$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes	2c	801.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.44	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	6c	750$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	8c	622.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	3c	603.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	8c	599.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5034…3f34backed Yes	7c	499.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	91	14.3%13 W · 78 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb24…8f7ebacked Yes	2c	479.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes	11c	427.38$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+244.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde72…b5b1backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	20cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36d3…aedbbacked Yes	4c	399.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	81	16%13 W · 68 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	386.58$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.19	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	9c	361.08$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6781…2786backed Yes	4c	333$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	304.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	7c	275.47$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes	10c	272.16$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.44	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	5c	249.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7f…6554backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x186c…f982backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…1c87backed Yes	10c	135$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6e…2225backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b7…af8fbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb60c…8e81backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event