Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c7548af0c234f9a0684f04a2afd1bf92900728e020322974c91ee64b2e511e2

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $316,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $113,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,621 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	15,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	7,889$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.42	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	0c	6,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	5,127$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.92	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,938$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	4,000$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.39	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,485$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.84	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,171$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.24	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,105$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.35	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	3c	1,838$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.96	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,830$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	1c	1,820$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	1,787$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	3c	1,659$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.94	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	2c	1,538$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.01	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	1,500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,386$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,331$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	1,191$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.39	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	3c	449.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2c0…6761backed Yes	3c	426.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	8cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	4c	394.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	3c	342.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes	7c	226.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event