Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef23af2d5178d2efb44fae4a259375a26e2e892d534c12dcb1daf90133c3bb2

Rebuilt 32 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $420,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $155,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,646 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	55,555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e1…90efbacked Yes	0c	24,370$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	22,186$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.58	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	1c	14,237$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.69	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	10,591$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	9,799$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	8,971$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.25	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	7,027$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.63	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	6,602$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.61	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e18…5c65backed Yes	2c	5,172$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.65	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab6c…4bb7backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42f4…9e88backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	4,024$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.49	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	3,388$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,069$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	3,059$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb078…b45ebacked Yes	1c	3,012$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	1c	3,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	2,801$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,633$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.51	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	1c	2,249$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,204$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	2,190$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	6c	2,115$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.22	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,075$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	1c	2,072$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	1c	2,051$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	3c	2,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	1c	1,739$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c45…425cbacked Yes	5c	1,681$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfe…5439backed Yes	7c	1,612$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d92…4eb8backed Yes	1c	1,591$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6c…74c0backed Yes	1c	1,537$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	1,504$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.47	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf671…780bbacked Yes	3c	1,491$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	2c	1,433$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	1,400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes	2c	1,329$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.35	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	2c	1,289$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x364b…db90backed Yes	2c	1,250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	5cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	5c	970.22$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.13	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	938.44$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.87	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	919.98$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	909.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	1c	786.65$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes	3c	702.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.05	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4683…a639backed Yes	2c	646.62$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	583.05$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1406…3637backed Yes	5c	556.14$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	4c	475$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea3…36d2backed Yes	3c	457.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	3c	441.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1470…6b7ebacked Yes	3c	427.34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	4c	398.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	361.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes	6c	340.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.77	92	32.6%30 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	5c	305.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9f…8bc1backed Yes	6c	182.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	12cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event