TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,491,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,491,758 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c69,700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c37,362$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.361290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c37,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13e…d47dbacked Yes0c32,998$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…8019backed Yes0c32,995$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533e…d305backed Yes0c32,993$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ef…0607backed Yes0c32,980$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.98100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…38a7backed Yes0c32,970$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.97110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37df…cd2abacked Yes0c32,930$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.93110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed Yes0c32,878$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…6469backed Yes0c32,875$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.87110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b33…c174backed Yes0c32,857$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.86120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d3…da39backed Yes0c32,825$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe332…7b2abacked Yes0c32,787$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes0c32,764$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.76100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…c011backed Yes0c32,748$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f5…c3fbbacked Yes0c32,721$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…99c5backed Yes0c32,699$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea0…15c8backed Yes0c32,656$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.66100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0440…4280backed Yes0c32,648$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.65110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e9…1cbbbacked Yes0c32,638$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a94…ecdcbacked Yes0c32,625$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.62110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…36cbbacked Yes0c32,573$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c2…b38fbacked Yes0c32,523$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84eb…b36dbacked Yes0c32,482$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d12…c36dbacked Yes0c32,415$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebe…81b7backed Yes0c32,352$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.35110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x184e…7984backed Yes0c32,201$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4117…8cd4backed Yes0c32,012$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…4c68backed Yes0c31,644$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…430cbacked Yes0c31,316$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0c…299ebacked Yes0c31,110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.11100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…2e63backed Yes0c30,811$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…b4debacked Yes0c30,236$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ea…bd60backed Yes0c29,294$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.29110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…6f51backed Yes0c28,861$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.86110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5db…60eabacked Yes0c28,713$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7592…3cf8backed Yes0c28,700$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x403e…4a9cbacked Yes0c28,690$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4018…1bc8backed Yes0c28,650$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.65100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…476fbacked Yes0c28,598$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e5…947ebacked Yes0c28,577$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb388…d0a1backed Yes0c28,545$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…7340backed Yes0c27,988$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9383…65dfbacked Yes0c27,732$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adc…5aeabacked Yes0c27,552$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b4…15b2backed Yes0c27,495$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ea…4f53backed Yes0c26,531$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.53140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1189…1860backed Yes0c25,993$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…cb0abacked Yes0c25,502$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes0c25,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852c…31a8backed Yes0c25,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c09…74bfbacked Yes0c25,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee55…1babbacked Yes0c25,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeff…0138backed Yes0c25,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a74…f4bdbacked Yes0c25,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…c25ebacked Yes0c25,078$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46c2…611bbacked Yes0c25,073$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3687…49f5backed Yes0c25,063$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.06110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1760…76fabacked Yes0c25,063$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e67…2279backed Yes0c25,063$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.06110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da4…30efbacked Yes0c25,063$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…d489backed Yes0c25,063$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.06100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc69…b1acbacked Yes0c25,063$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ab…f0dfbacked Yes0c25,014$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…ee88backed Yes0c23,542$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b6…d96fbacked Yes0c22,836$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe362…0a47backed Yes0c20,798$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa17e…3fbdbacked Yes0c20,798$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ff…5101backed Yes0c20,798$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd008…5630backed Yes0c20,798$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ae…927bbacked Yes0c20,798$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9041…d1cfbacked Yes0c20,798$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe44…d604backed Yes0c20,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a28…0575backed Yes0c20,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933a…1a41backed Yes0c20,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc6…80c9backed Yes0c20,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…1edebacked Yes0c20,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac6…d5b6backed Yes0c20,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2981…9e61backed Yes0c20,783$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02c…58bfbacked Yes0c19,380$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes0c17,721$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.727211.1%8 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4148…efe7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef5…fb98backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a5c6backed Yes0c5,096$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.