Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763e75584a85b0cf3ef90e853519f57802da4369321c0b46ba12cf6c7f427c57

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $407,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $198,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,849 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	19,799$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.46	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	18,273$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.2	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	14,394$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.23	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	0c	14,102$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	10,309$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42f4…9e88backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	9,974$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…07b5backed Yes	2c	9,773$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	9,233$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,255$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.35	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbef5…fb98backed Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x364b…db90backed Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	5cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e18…5c65backed Yes	2c	5,318$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	5,162$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.65	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	4,959$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.76	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,738$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	4,511$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	0c	3,514$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	3,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c45…425cbacked Yes	2c	3,312$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.72	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,086$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.95	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe98b…d34bbacked Yes	0c	3,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	3,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,971$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	1c	2,892$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	1c	2,754$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.42	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	2,368$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	1c	1,992$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b8…2cc9backed Yes	1c	1,968$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes	2c	1,739$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.45	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes	1c	1,325$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	1,177$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes	1c	847.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4148…efe7backed Yes	2c	448.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event