TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$332,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,851 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes0c20,865$42 inLost-$41.7313317.3%23 W · 110 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc032…99adbacked Yes0c19,530$20 inLost-$19.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c16,569$17 inLost-$16.57540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe536…b501backed Yes0c12,421$12 inLost-$12.42120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab58…fa7cbacked Yes0c11,345$11 inLost-$11.3490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2724…7490backed Yes0c11,042$11 inLost-$11.0490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b4…9291backed Yes0c11,019$11 inLost-$11.02100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4284…f035backed Yes0c10,724$11 inLost-$10.7280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5416…6c49backed Yes0c10,343$10 inLost-$10.3480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef5…fb98backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83b…4be1backed Yes0c7,818$15 inLost-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c7,517$14 inLost-$14.171,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c6,686$14 inLost-$14.041,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes0c3,176$15 inLost-$1530110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac2…a5c6backed Yes1c1,694$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4148…efe7backed Yes1c1,512$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.