Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe57e5e601faa634a172fbf25a87a799abc2b3e2057aba9215d485ba9d35c2ee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $868,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $932,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $868,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed No | 2c | 55,592$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.66 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…7798backed No | 2c | 55,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ce…5e65backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked No | 0c | 48,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…1b39backed No | 2c | 34,342$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…2698backed No | 0c | 34,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cba…5939backed No | 2c | 29,423$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…f8e2backed No | 2c | 28,861$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…0c37backed No | 2c | 24,631$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…8803backed No | 2c | 23,332$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 21,000$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.99 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac14backed No | 2c | 18,662$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…bfa5backed No | 2c | 7,647$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 1c | 7,300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…13febacked No | 1c | 7,097$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45f…553cbacked No | 1c | 6,960$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…38b0backed No | 15c | 6,840$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…fcccbacked No | 2c | 6,563$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3855…0cb1backed No | 2c | 6,415$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 5,665$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f25…60e9backed No | 2c | 5,625$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed No | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…406ebacked No | 1c | 4,439$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…4e36backed No | 2c | 4,412$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…1b25backed No | 2c | 4,221$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c11…6bbfbacked No | 2c | 4,164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…d6dabacked No | 1c | 4,140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…0fe6backed No | 3c | 4,018$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87e2backed No | 3c | 3,566$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…4009backed No | 2c | 3,539$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 5c | 3,394$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.45 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed No | 1c | 3,152$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…b600backed No | 2c | 3,009$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,702$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 10c | 2,525$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 3c | 2,456$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…0e44backed No | 2c | 2,384$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…ecf0backed No | 2c | 2,353$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…c86ebacked No | 1c | 2,273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb490…e7c8backed No | 4c | 2,239$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…f61dbacked No | 2c | 1,975$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…ee93backed No | 2c | 1,931$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…8805backed No | 2c | 1,877$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed No | 6c | 1,863$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…7203backed No | 1c | 1,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8760…f4e7backed No | 4c | 1,579$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 1c | 1,565$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…2ee1backed No | 1c | 1,533$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…511bbacked No | 2c | 1,471$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…fd67backed No | 4c | 1,409$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec0…ce82backed No | 1c | 1,353$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635e…3f8dbacked No | 2c | 1,345$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…779bbacked No | 2c | 1,235$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…6d43backed No | 2c | 1,086$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfb…7d18backed No | 2c | 999.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 8c | 998.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…219dbacked No | 1c | 981.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…b305backed No | 2c | 920$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…152dbacked No | 7c | 859.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…421dbacked No | 1c | 776.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…04b0backed No | 7c | 771.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…d495backed No | 3c | 751.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 2c | 711.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…f4fabacked No | 2c | 636.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f4…52d6backed No | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed No | 5c | 618.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…3c36backed No | 2c | 595.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked No | 4c | 545.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed No | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…92a9backed No | 2c | 515.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…602bbacked No | 20c | 501.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…a6c7backed No | 20c | 500.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…523abacked No | 2c | 458.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d30…c19dbacked No | 4c | 395.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 15c | 394.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…707dbacked No | 3c | 360$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd962…d207backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340a…cfa2backed No | 10c | 220.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked No | 13c | 218$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed No | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd601…fceebacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…684bbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked No | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed rate cut by December 2025 meeting?Yes won
- Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.