Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2663a13f988dec6a1ef0476254ce845f714a00a26a7e3aa894008a974aea3634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $409,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $321,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 0c | 142,597$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked No | 0c | 58,900$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cba…5939backed No | 2c | 18,256$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…13febacked No | 1c | 15,212$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…3758backed No | 1c | 9,121$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…0e44backed No | 1c | 8,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 1c | 6,937$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…e41fbacked No | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…6e66backed No | 1c | 4,245$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…a6c7backed No | 5c | 4,234$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,037$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…e1d0backed No | 1c | 3,590$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766b…e4ffbacked No | 3c | 3,514$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…fb2bbacked No | 1c | 3,311$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb490…e7c8backed No | 2c | 2,602$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 1c | 2,602$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 2c | 2,465$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,416$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 1c | 2,355$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…38b0backed No | 2c | 2,196$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed No | 2c | 2,169$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…ecf0backed No | 1c | 2,029$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…f516backed No | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…d495backed No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb7…e503backed No | 2c | 1,881$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…f352backed No | 1c | 1,717$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97b…ebd8backed No | 1c | 1,583$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f46cbacked No | 1c | 1,565$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…219dbacked No | 1c | 1,455$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…2d43backed No | 1c | 1,394$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 8c | 1,292$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3c…ca66backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8739…e5dcbacked No | 3c | 1,124$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked No | 2c | 1,042$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…0ceebacked No | 3c | 707.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…eb59backed No | 5c | 641.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…7d36backed No | 2c | 633.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…2b71backed No | 4c | 553.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…70aebacked No | 4c | 530.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?this page
- Fed rate cut by December 2025 meeting?Yes won
- Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.