World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 9% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ca59637ebf1767fac09f8374d6a5beb6f2ca6819a6f081050f35f63bf3a2634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,817 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 37c | 8,991$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,332.07 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…501cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,211$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.39 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…9988backed Yes | 37c | 1,622$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +348.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,344$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 9c | 860.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 8c | 800$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +527.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked No | 53c | 633.17$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 7c | 600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +315.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 59c | 592$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 59c | 592$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.28 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…53f7backed Yes | 15c | 574.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…b5b6backed No | 2c | 448.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…a032backed Yes | 33c | 419.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 60c | 380$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7e…7282backed Yes | 12c | 368.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…b266backed Yes | 56c | 359.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 59c | 328.07$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…2a24backed Yes | 69c | 311.89$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 6c | 303.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +604.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 6c | 256.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…dea6backed No | 9c | 256.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0d…5087backed No | 18c | 250.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 7c | 226.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…dbf9backed No | 5c | 220.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 207.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed No | 10c | 198.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…c8dcbacked No | 52c | 191.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 46c | 167.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 153.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…7dcfbacked No | 76c | 147.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…b47bbacked No | 8c | 146.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed Yes | 48c | 145.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 140.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 112.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…d0b5backed No | 11c | 109.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed No | 49c | 94.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 54c | 91.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked Yes | 53c | 86.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 51c | 85.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 44c | 81.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…b7f7backed No | 43c | 75.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…2186backed Yes | 53c | 73.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…c4e8backed No | 62c | 68.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x150d…e174backed Yes | 58c | 64.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 30c | 59.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed No | 54c | 58.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 51.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…cdddbacked Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 48.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 46.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…7088backed Yes | 42c | 40.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 46c | 38.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 43c | 36.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…8d62backed Yes | 61c | 35.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4d…6103backed Yes | 44c | 33.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…a41fbacked No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5a70backed Yes | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb488…bbf7backed Yes | 62c | 29.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…3921backed Yes | 41c | 28.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 50c | 26.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf32…d887backed Yes | 59c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…2f5cbacked No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee93…62d9backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…3af7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d6…16a1backed Yes | 80c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…01a0backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…2f5abacked No | 79c | 13.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 9% or more?this page
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 6% and 9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.