World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 6% and 9%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7424dbc54f30bf2a8a590b37782461cba630cfa964e2484e5b1f0b4bd087fe80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,991 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e4e…501cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,906$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 4c | 1,016$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 17c | 752$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 17c | 522$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 17c | 431$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 6c | 395.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 335$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +604.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…b47bbacked Yes | 7c | 296.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed Yes | 9c | 286.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +315.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5a70backed Yes | 16c | 266.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 17c | 261$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 14c | 161.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 130.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 119.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc2…93fbbacked Yes | 17c | 107.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 107.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…2186backed Yes | 18c | 98.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 59c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes | 22c | 76.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 55.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 6% and 9%?this page
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 6% or more?No won
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 3% and 6%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by 9% or more?Yes won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 0% and 3%?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 3% and 6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.