Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4b15773716fed767702b0f0e4c2f7906a54498f9873165874eade9ccbe5f84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 0c | 30,920$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 6,979$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 17c | 5,353$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…143bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 46c | 4,168$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1c9dbacked No | 1c | 4,063$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed No | 1c | 4,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 10c | 4,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 3,696$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 4c | 3,630$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 3,155$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…48b6backed No | 2c | 2,841$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked No | 2c | 2,759$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 2c | 2,159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…7803backed No | 5c | 2,111$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…bcb8backed No | 1c | 2,087$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…6ef4backed Yes | 54c | 2,010$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 4c | 1,870$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 3c | 1,796$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,765$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbd…2a12backed No | 3c | 1,707$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…e125backed No | 13c | 1,462$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,456$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 1,200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 20c | 1,194$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 37c | 1,192$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.77 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked No | 8c | 1,107$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed No | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 996.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 32c | 965.69$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.48 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 916.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 788.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…bb35backed No | 19c | 778.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 657.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed No | 9c | 635.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 4c | 599.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…f732backed Yes | 59c | 580.31$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 575.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…3083backed No | 20c | 560$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…8e26backed No | 5c | 544.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 28c | 525.23$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 3c | 521.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…840fbacked Yes | 54c | 504.36$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…4eeebacked No | 10c | 500.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 475.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…4348backed No | 5c | 396.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…86bebacked Yes | 79c | 379.24$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 55c | 376.03$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 363.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 70c | 342.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983b…09c4backed Yes | 66c | 302.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…0aaebacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 26c | 278.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 7c | 270.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 265.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f8…1f57backed Yes | 78c | 254.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…70a9backed No | 6c | 249.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fd…23f6backed No | 21c | 241.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 37c | 228.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4474backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f78…f3a0backed No | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 20c | 198.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 60c | 186.87$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…5588backed No | 7c | 183.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 8c | 179.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0426…4b7dbacked Yes | 62c | 160.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…6ca8backed Yes | 54c | 157.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1668…0068backed Yes | 78c | 154.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 52c | 151$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…6e0dbacked No | 10c | 142.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…8d42backed Yes | 46c | 132.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…4238backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…a68dbacked No | 35c | 115.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 19c | 114.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked No | 44c | 114.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed No | 44c | 109.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…a337backed No | 19c | 102.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…2093backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2a…c1fabacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a246backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…4ac6backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7404…2d78backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…8545backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.