Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b5d6b4643e38c141a3070f365de442f78564693f14f9ee605f83f17ea6c922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 48c | 532.78$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.45 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 310.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 261.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 78c | 251.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 68c | 242.96$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 153.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 64c | 147$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 146.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 115.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 111.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 109.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 107.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 101.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 87.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 84.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 65c | 80.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 75.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 54c | 74.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 73.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 19c | 71.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 54c | 64.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 62.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 49.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 49.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 47.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 43c | 47.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 41.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 39.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 38.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 37.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 49c | 34.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 31.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 29.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 48c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 62c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes | 46c | 23.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 58c | 22.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 48c | 21.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 73c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 74c | 13.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.