Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x351749784b94208c36fc3bc6c93f7d81fca09ca48d45e0b58bacf01c7b8b35e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 54c | 1,535$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.67 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 46c | 732.52$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 372.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 52c | 348$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 47c | 344.66$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.24 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 255.08$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 219.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 204.95$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 17c | 169.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 169.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 163.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 155.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 45c | 154.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 146$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 55c | 121$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 109.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 104.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 94.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 91.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…701abacked No | 48c | 90.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 86.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 53c | 75.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 47c | 71.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 46c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 63.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 54c | 58.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 51c | 54.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 76c | 54.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 52.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 52.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 49.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 33.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 33.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 32.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 30.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 44c | 28.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed No | 55c | 27.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 55c | 23.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 46c | 22.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.