Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c0c21c49c243122495c82535dc4c0b83d40f07d30362162c4e6b0f0eca4d063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,365$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 61c | 1,336$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 68c | 516.78$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.75 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 481.15$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 439.35$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 59c | 404.6$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 61c | 395.9$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 34c | 381.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 14c | 335$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 329.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 264.19$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 47c | 247.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 210$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 17c | 159.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 155$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 9c | 146.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 72c | 138.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 128.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 110.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 13c | 106.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 76c | 94.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 80.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Yes | 18c | 65.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 72c | 47.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…821cbacked No | 42c | 46.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 45.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 75c | 41.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 29c | 40.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 80c | 36.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 19.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.