Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3dd23185c92009cb1db322c89836a6273f822ec9aef808b798f3a26f3f87121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 544.93$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 444.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 406.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 390.39$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 265.6$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 12c | 248.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 233.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 226.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 223.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 207.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 176.61$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 167$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 64c | 150.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 149.74$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 144.55$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 123.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 111.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 102.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 46c | 99.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 96.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 16c | 95.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 53c | 94.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 91.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 83.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 79.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 15c | 74.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…c9d9backed No | 63c | 72.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 71.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 65.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 66c | 65.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 53.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 50.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 49.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 47.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…7e53backed No | 66c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 62c | 40.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 38.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 37c | 36.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 35.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 35c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 64c | 24.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 66c | 23.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…875ebacked Yes | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…5989backed Yes | 54c | 19.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 57c | 18.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked No | 61c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 63c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…afb3backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.