Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec4d35678ed192bc918bee04fe5caeba33e793f3ca348b9b209a784780c1093b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2a5…9ae8backed No | 0c | 24,128$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,295$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 74c | 985.16$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.19 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 66c | 835.43$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.28 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 66c | 782.75$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.94 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 756.15$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 629.5$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 580.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 30c | 472.97$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.98 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed No | 15c | 463.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 40c | 462.85$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 71c | 457.07$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.65 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 437.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.9 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 366.02$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.34 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 314$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 32c | 302.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.82 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 241.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 58c | 236.69$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 214.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 201.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.25 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 195.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 51c | 187.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 67c | 185.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 175.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 29c | 174.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 29c | 170.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 167.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 167.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 161$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.09 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 158.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 157.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 154.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 71c | 152.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 53c | 150.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 137.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed No | 31c | 134.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 28c | 128.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 26c | 121.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…c2d1backed Yes | 58c | 119.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 11c | 108.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 73c | 108.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 102$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 101$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 91.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 46c | 91.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 84.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 62c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 76.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 70c | 76.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 40c | 75.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 30c | 74.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 73.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 62c | 68.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 58c | 68.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 66.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 65.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 39c | 64.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 35c | 62.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 59.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 72c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 57.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 56.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 56.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 30c | 51.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 50.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 70c | 48.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 76c | 47.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 47.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 72c | 45.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…8223backed Yes | 29c | 45.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 44.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Yes | 30c | 42.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 41.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 74c | 41.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 37c | 41.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 78c | 38.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 46c | 38.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 36.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.