TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd2a5…9ae8backed No0c24,128$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.13742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c1,295$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.3310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No74c985.16$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.1919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes66c835.43$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.2879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes66c782.75$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9416733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No37c756.15$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.224,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No47c629.5$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.412,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes26c580.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.071,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes30c472.97$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.9815527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed No15c463.96$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.792347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes40c462.85$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2808920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes71c457.07$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6527079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes33c437.16$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.91,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No10c395.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No78c366.02$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.3447136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No65c314$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.684,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes32c302.47$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c241.6$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.066,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No58c236.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No9c214.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes33c201.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes30c195.67$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes51c187.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2814945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No67c185.42$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2316552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c175.78$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.026,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes29c174.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1230919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes29c170.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c167.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c167.54$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes30c161$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c158.37$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.794,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes21c157.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.082,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No21c154.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.351,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No71c152.94$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6116157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd01…e719backed Yes53c150.41$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.351450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No75c137.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.164,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ab…6412backed No31c134.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.12528%7 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes28c128.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3141046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No26c121.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9956322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…c2d1backed Yes58c119.73$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…52abbacked No11c108.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.193764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No73c108.82$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.343246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No74c102$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.482,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c101$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.564,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1a…2987backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.295,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7117637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No53c97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c91.47$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.373,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked Yes46c91.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.284864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes27c84.55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.553,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No74c78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7243959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes62c78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.385937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c76.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.012,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No70c76.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4226067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…ee23backed Yes40c75.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.541520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes30c74.8$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.361643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c73.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.445,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.311835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No62c68.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9817457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes58c68.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.645056%28 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c66.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.667,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c65.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c65.53$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.444,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5daf…7d98backed Yes39c64.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.264438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes35c62.63$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9715630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.22,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.14,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No73c59.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2876059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe14…d255backed Yes72c59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.521450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No63c57.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.054,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes79c57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.84580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No70c56.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes77c56.14$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.772,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes30c51.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.284228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes29c50.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.032,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1655…08e1backed No70c48.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.613063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No76c47.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3716566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes28c47.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2947239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No72c45.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6723666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44fd…8223backed Yes29c45.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.241625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes31c44.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.844,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked Yes30c42.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No68c41.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.565,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes74c41.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes37c41.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.084017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.413637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.211947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes78c38.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.537255.6%40 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8688…27fbbacked Yes46c38.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.454245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No71c36.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.831,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.412927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.