Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3f3118e399056aec9cf89353f73979cab569f871d72c08da9a4dfed001a12d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 7c | 1,902$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 15c | 1,107$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 13c | 789.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 711$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 22c | 582.71$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 15c | 393.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 20c | 388.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 346.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 13c | 341.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 16c | 290$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 255$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 14c | 250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 15c | 241.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 21c | 239.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 18c | 238.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 8c | 234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 17c | 199.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 76c | 198.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 173.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 167.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 164.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 154.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 151.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 12c | 137.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 119$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 115.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf409…f6cfbacked Yes | 19c | 102.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 65.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 19c | 52.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 77c | 48.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 80c | 46.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 46.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 38.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 78c | 38.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 79c | 34.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 33.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 78c | 30.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 75c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 77c | 22.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 77c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.