Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x930a0008643f4d411c3dff8c3e6855729c8292a60278daff5b2a16e04823afcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 4c | 2,244$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 777.58$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.51 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 685.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 8c | 654.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 5c | 610.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 7c | 532.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 497.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 7c | 436.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 381.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 5c | 378.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 352.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 314.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 4c | 291.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 262.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88dd…c02dbacked Yes | 8c | 245.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 5c | 244.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 225.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 204$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 9c | 202.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 176.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 150.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 20c | 109.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 98.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 11c | 94.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 22c | 66.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.