Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59141f950ae0354b89a43758cccbdc90b975e7ab5100b81626731479bbeb6e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 46c | 2,357$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.36 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed No | 79c | 1,262$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 849.4$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 46c | 698.33$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 48c | 570.94$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.36 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 505.58$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 43c | 499.97$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.19 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 47c | 493.2$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 56c | 481.86$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 19c | 469.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 458.64$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 429.86$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 47c | 300.61$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 49c | 281.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 74c | 266.82$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 49c | 258.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 56c | 255$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 53c | 251.58$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 41c | 245.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 38c | 237.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 228.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 55c | 226$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 65c | 219$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 214.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 211$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 205$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 60c | 200.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 190.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 190.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 186.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 63c | 186.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 178.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 169.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 166.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 166.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…af49backed No | 75c | 158.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 54c | 151$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 48c | 134.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 120.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 38c | 114.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 22c | 113.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 23c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 52c | 106.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…c2d1backed Yes | 24c | 105.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 103.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 42c | 102.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…83f0backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…cee0backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 22c | 99.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 98.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 42c | 98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 59c | 96.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 94.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 57c | 92.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 92.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 62c | 91.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 51c | 86.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 83.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 34c | 82.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 64c | 77.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 24c | 73.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 72.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 44c | 68.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 66.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 66.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 66.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 61c | 65.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 25c | 62.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 60c | 61.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 48c | 57.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 56.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 57c | 56.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 54.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 25c | 53.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 50.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 50.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 49.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.