TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No46c2,357$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.361,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed No79c1,262$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.912347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c849.4$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.638,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes46c698.33$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes48c570.94$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.3615527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c505.58$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.514,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes43c499.97$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1925135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No47c493.2$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.322,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes56c481.86$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27030919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes19c469.7$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8314945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c458.64$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No53c429.86$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.052,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes47c300.61$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes49c281.95$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8357150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No74c266.82$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes49c258.46$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5715040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes56c255$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.81,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked No53c251.58$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5916733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes41c245.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5311724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes38c237.04$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9014222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c228.49$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.986,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed No55c226$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.718549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No65c219$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1954853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c214.33$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes54c211$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.943,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c205$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.524,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No60c200.84$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8371823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No62c190.73$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.534,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes48c190.42$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.495,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c186.97$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.022,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No63c186.25$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.677251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c178.07$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes47c169.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c166.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.523,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No50c166.36$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.952,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6e…af49backed No75c158.9$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.72650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes54c151$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.542,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes48c134.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7419737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c125$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c120.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5065043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes38c114.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.643429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes22c113.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe547…271dbacked Yes23c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.522714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes52c106.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.616346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…c2d1backed Yes24c105.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c103.6$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.965,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No42c102.93$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.373246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x459c…83f0backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5385049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1a…2987backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae79…5322backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb8…cee0backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3443959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes22c99.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.647540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No48c98.38$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.14,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked No42c98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.443721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-58%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No59c96.74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No66c94.53$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No57c92.48$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.771,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c92.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.013,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No62c91.87$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7515669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes51c86.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0720133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c83.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.323,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes34c82.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2818945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb252…add8backed No64c77.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.642763%17 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes24c73.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes37c72.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.971649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes44c68.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c66.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.493,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No59c66.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.452,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No59c66.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0786949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes61c65.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405056%28 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes25c62.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5841046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No60c61.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5842366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes41c60.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.252,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d8…5430backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.782360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No48c57.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.061,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.444,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No55c56.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2176059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No57c56.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3839956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes37c56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7254735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No48c54.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes25c53.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No75c53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4846232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.622,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No59c50.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.794,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes42c50.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.933,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4847538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2920339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes21c49.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.235,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.