Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3280b9d5f4bccff0165b5a37dfe7ac2e83b789767be429faba49e7b04d72bd86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 815.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 20c | 393.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 75c | 293.04$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 284.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 277.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 220.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 194.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 162$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 138$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 18c | 136.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 105.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 20c | 99.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 84.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 78.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 67.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…108fbacked Yes | 24c | 53.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 48.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.